Two-radio event signatures

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A Radio Sport Canada Research Project 1 v1.0 30/01/2008

by Sylvan Katz, VE5ZX and José Nunes, CT1BOH Email: ve5zx.ct1boh@gmail.com republished by permission of the authors


In the spring of 2007 José, CT1BOH, a world-class contester and a member of the CQWW contest committee, contacted Sylvan, VE5ZX, a contester and complex systems scientist. He had read an article [1] Sylvan had written on amateur radio contesting. He wanted to know if Sylvan would be interested in working with him on a research problem.

José wanted to know if the CQWW cw logs could be used to find unique signatures for world class stations using two radios in the SOAB unassisted, SOAB assisted (SOAB A) and multi-operator one transmitter (MS) entry classes. Both SOAB classes and MS can use two radios. The single operator class can only have one signal on the air at a time (SO2R) while the MS stations can have two signals on the air, provided the second signal is used to work new multipliers. If unique signatures can be found then they might be useful for verifying the entry class of a log. This seemed like an exciting research project that would improve our understanding of radio sports and perhaps provide adjudicators with insights for techniques to aid decision making activities. So began an exchange of emails, telephone calls, spreadsheets, graphs and tables in search of two radio event signatures. The research reported [2]in this article was completed in December of 2007.

Contents

CQWW open log policy

Many technologies such as packet and SO2R are changing the face of radio sports. Some competitors see these changes as positive while others don’t. However, most contestants agree that non compliance with the class rules dilutes the validity of the competition in that class. The CQWW committee recently endorsed an open log policy and they made the 2006 cw and ssb contest logs publicly available. The committee is inviting the contest community and the broader research communities to deepen their understanding of the art and practice of radio sports through the use of the CQWW contest logs. This initiative may encourage competitors to use these data for a variety of research projects. For example, the logs might be used to prepare a dynamic world map of the contest activity overlaid with actual propagation measures. Or competitors might study each other's logs in the hope of acquiring insights to improve performance. Some people may wish to write articles comparing the strategies of different stations. And an open log policy will increase peer scrutiny of the committee decisions as well as encourage the development of analytical techniques to help enforce the rules.

The two radio hypothesis

José had a hunch that the top SOAB, SOAB A and MS cw contenders might differ in the way they use their two radio setups. He thought the use of packet by SOAB A and more than one operator as well as packet in the MS classes would change the profile of their two radio activity.

In 2006 a world class SOAB or MS high power cw operator(s) using a two radio setup logged 6,000 – 9,000 QSOs. An average logging rate of 2-3 QSOs per min (Q/min) is needed to log this many contacts in a 48 hour time period. During peak run periods the QSO rate can go over 5 Q/min.

The only way a SOAB operator can work new multipliers and stations that don’t call him while he is running is through S&P activity frequently done on the second radio. Intuitively, it seems that at higher Q rates an SOAB operator is less likely to have time to use the second radio thereby decreasing the likelihood of the log containing second radio activity during high Q rate minutes. In comparison, SOAB A and MS operators, use packet to automatically fill the band maps of their logging programs. They spend much less time searching and more time pouncing thereby increasing the likelihood of logging activity on the second radio at high run rates.

If these notions are correct then logs that contain information about which radio a QSO is made on might contain signatures that help identify the entry class of the logs. Unfortunately, CQWW logs don’t contain the information needed to figure out which QSOs were made on which radio. As a result we constructed a log analyzer that used software techniques to detect two radio events in CQWW cw logs.

Two radio events

A two radio event logic was determined after many hours of manually studying two radio activities from CQWW logs. We defined a two radio event (2RE) as a specific contiguous sequence of log entries. In this article we focus solely on log sequences consisting of 3 and 4 consecutive QSOs. Figure 1 is a schematic of the possible band change sequences that might be encountered by a log analyzer looking for 2REs in these sequences.

Figure 1-two radio events

Consider which sequences a world class two radio station might use. An SO2R operator will be running one radio and using the other radio to QSY for a QSO or for S&P activity during slower intervals. The multi-op single transmitter operator will likely be assisted by another operator using the second radio to search for new multipliers.

For a top contender a 2RE will take place over a relatively short period of time. A single operator’s attention is drawn away from the run radio to the second radio and then after making 1 or 2 QSOs it will return to the run radio. We consider the band sequences B1>B2>B1 and B1>B2>B2>B1 to qualify as 1 and 2 two radio events, respectively, if they take place during short enough time periods. The sequence B1>B2>B3>B1 could also be a 2RE but this sequence occurs infrequently and we did not count it as a 2RE. The maximum time interval during which a two radio sequence must have occurred to qualify as a 2RE was set to 3 minutes.

A Perl log analyzer was written to process the logs and build 2RE profiles for stations that submitted 2006 CQWW cw logs. In addition, a profile was made for each station of the number of QSOs that were made on each band during each minute of the contest. These profiles were used to determine the QSO rate (Q/min) at which the 2REs took place. José’s 2RE profile at CT3NT is given as an example in appendix A.

In order to ensure stations truly used SO2R and did not just make many QSYs on just one radio, logs from SOAB and SOAB A with 50 or more 2REs and MS with more than 200 2REs were selected for this analysis. As a result 96 logs in the three classes of interest were collected for further analysis. The 96 logs were composed of 66 DX logs of which 54 logs were submitted by European stations and 30 North American logs. Only 6 logs were in the low power category. The selected logs with summary information are given in Appendix B. Despite all of the discussions about the use of SO2R in contests we found that less than 2% of SOAB and SOAB A entries were serious SO2R users. Two radio signatures The logs and 2RE profiles for the selected stations were used to develop common signatures for the three entry classes. The first step was to analyze each log and count how many two radio events occurred during the minutes when the operator(s) was making 1, 2, 3 … 8 QSOs per minute (Q/min). Table 1 summarizes the total number of QSOs and the number of 2REs at each run rate for all competitors in the three categories.

Table 1 - Number of two radio events at various QSO rates

Figure 2 gives the distribution of the probabilities for each entry class that QSOs made at a rate of n Q/min was a 2RE [3]. We call the 2RE probability distribution for a station or class its two radio event signature. The probabilities were computed by dividing the number of 2REs at each run rate by the total number of QSOs logged. For example, Table 2 gives the number of 2REs and the probability distribution for 2REs at various run rates for CT3NT. Also, it gives the average probability distributions [4] for each class calculated using 94 logs [5] which are plotted in Figure 2.

Table 2 - CT3NT and entry class probability distribution of 2REs
Figure 2 - Two radio event signatures

There are two general differences in the average 2RE signatures among the classes.

1. The run rate with the maximum probability of a 2RE occurring, called the peak run rate, may increase for the SOAB A signature when compared to the SOAB signature.

2. The right hand side of the probability distribution, frequently called the right hand tail, broadens with the assistance of packet and another operator.

The differences among the average 2RE signatures for the three classes lend support to our hypothesis that assistance from packet and another operator will increase the likelihood of logging a 2RE at higher run rates. Let’s test the hypothesis using three subclasses distinguished by geography (EU, DX and NA) for each main class.

World-class two radio event signatures

Subclass signature analysis was restricted to the six top European (EU), North American (NA) or DX high power logs in each subclass. Since we are exploring the effect of run rate on 2REs the logs were ranked using the total number of logged QSOs and not by the final scores. The findings can be related to scores later if required.

Figure 3 gives the 2RE signatures for high power entries in nine subclasses: EU SOAB, EU SOAB A, EU MS, NA SOAB, NA SOAB A, NA MS, DX SOAB, DX SOAB A and DX MS. The number in brackets after the calls in graphs are the number of 2REs detected in the log. Some single operator subclasses did not have six entries with 50 or more 2REs. In these cases the available logs were used to calculate the subclass averages.

The average 2RE signatures for each subclass are shown with red lines. The only log with 50 or more 2REs in the DX SOAB A class was entered by C4M who, according to the published results, was disqualified. It was used as a possible representative example of the DX SOAB A subclass. Also, the distribution for CT6A, a low power entry in the EU SOAB A subclass with 240 2REs, is provided for illustration purposes. It was not used to calculate the average for the high power entries in the EU SOAB A subclass.



On closer examination the UW8M log appears to belong to a different class than EU SOAB A. The log contained 60% more 2REs for 40% fewer QSOs than OM8A who won the MS class. And the UW8M signature has uncharacteristically broad right hand tail compared to the other SOAB A entries. For these reasons the average EU SOAB A signature was recalculated without using the UW8M log. The revised individual and average EU SOAB A signatures are presented in Figure 4.

The average 2RE signatures for each subclass were collected together and plotted on one graph in Figure 5. The European average signatures are given by red lines, the DX signatures by black lines and the North American signatures by blue lines. Overall profiles for each geographical area are given in Appendix C.

Generally speaking the families of curves for the nine subclasses follow the same trend as the family of curves for the three overall classes shown in Figure 2. EU and NA SOAB A have broader right hand tails than EU and NA SOAB. EU and NA MS have broader right tails than EU and NA SOAB and SOAB A.

A notable difference is the signature of DX SOAB A represented by C4M’s log. It does not appear to be the signature that would be expected for a DX SOAB A given the trends for EU and NA entries. The 2RE signature would be expected to peak earlier at a lower Q rate and fall quicker than the DX MS. However, more logs with 50 or more 2REs would be needed to confirm that the average 2RE signature for the DX SOAB A subclass follows the same trend as the others.

Another notable difference is the height of the NA SOAB A peak run rate is lower than the peak for NA SOAB. In contrast, in Figure 2 the peak run rate for SOAB A was higher than SOAB and in Figure 5 the EU SOAB A peak run rate is higher than the peak for EU SOAB. And as discussed above we don’t have enough logs to establish a relationship between the peaks of the DX SOAB A and DX SOAB subclasses. However, one might expect the height of SOAB A peak run rate to always be higher than the SOAB peak operators because of the assistance of packet. Why is this not the case for NA SOAB A stations?

NA stations, notably USA stations, unlike European stations cannot work each other. USA stations S&P a lot more than European stations because there are many hours where running is almost impossible due to night time propagation conditions. Typically, the S&P rate is expected to be lower than the run rate. The result is the run versus S&P activity profiles for NA stations are much different than the profiles for European stations. For example, K5ZD had 4193 QSOs and 989 QSOs (24%) that were done in S&P mode. On the other hand ES5RR had 4400 QSOs and 428 (10%) that were done in S&P mode. The differences in operating practices imposed by the contest rules can produce significant differences in the average 2RE signature of the subclasses.

What have we learned?

Information gathered from CQWW contests logs for world class high power cw stations can be used to produce 2RE signatures. The profiles of these signatures are uniquely distinguished by the likelihood of 2REs occurring at high QSO rates. The more assistance a station receives the more likely it will log 2REs during high Q rate minutes. This information may be useful to contest adjudicators for checking the entry classes of logs.

Although this article shows how contest logs can be used to supplement the UBN information adjudicators use to make decisions it has shortcomings. We analyzed high power cw stations. There were too few lower power entries to study. And it has not been tested on SSB logs. Also, the findings for 3 of 9 subclasses were based on an analysis of less than six logs. More importantly, the average signatures for each subclass were derived using at most six logs. However, as average 2RE signatures are collected from future logs we will gain an understanding of how stable these signatures are and how useful they are to adjudicators. We don’t advocate the use of this technique to prove a log has been entered in the wrong class but we think the technique might be useful to alert adjudicators about logs that may need further inspection.

The CQWW committee took a bold step forward when it adopted the open log policy. It makes the adjudication process more transparent to the participants. Hopefully other sponsors will follow suit and encourage the contest community to research and develop new ways to probe the art and practice of radio sports. The R&D derived from these studies will lead to increased participant confidence in the quality of the adjudication in the radio sport events they enter.

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Bob Cox (K3EST), Doug Grant (K1DG), Randy Thompson, (K5ZD), Tõnno Vahk (ES5TV) and Doug Zwiebel (KR2Q) for comments on an earlier draft. Please email comments and questions to ve5zx.ct1boh@gmail.com

References

  1. A Novel Perspective of Amateur Radio Contesting
  2. An Excel workbook with the detailed calculations and two zipped intermediate data files are available from the radio sport research section of the Radio Sport Canada web site
  3. The graphs were plotted in Excel using the smooth line function not a statistical technique.
  4. For each log in a class the probability distribution was calculated and then the average probability was determined at each run rate using all the logs in the class.
  5. Although 96 logs were selected the C4M and UW8M logs were not used in the calculation of the average probabilities. The reasons for this are explained in the article.


Appendix A - CT3NT two-radio events

Date UTC Min. Band Station
25/11/2006 1111146V7D
25/11/2006 171714TZ5A
25/11/2006 272714CE4CT
25/11/2006 1309014XU7MWA
25/11/2006 15211214TU2CI
25/11/2006 2131333.5P3F
25/11/2006 2241443.5MD4K
25/11/2006 3171973.56Y3R
25/11/2006 3252053.5ZS4TX
25/11/2006 3302103.5V51AS
25/11/2006 3342143.5ZF1A
25/11/2006 3382183.5EA6IB
25/11/2006 3532337V47NT
25/11/2006 3562367EA6IB
25/11/2006 4162567HK1AR
25/11/2006 42226276W1RW
25/11/2006 5233237ZF1A
25/11/2006 54234276Y1V
25/11/2006 5463467TO5X
25/11/2006 55335379K2HN
25/11/2006 5573577V31XX
25/11/2006 5583587OH0X
25/11/2006 6564163.5CT9L
25/11/2006 73245221OH0Z
25/11/2006 740460218Q7DV
25/11/2006 74646621XU7MWA
25/11/2006 82050028UP5G
25/11/2006 85653621ZS4TX
25/11/2006 859539214U1ITU
25/11/2006 91055021UA9QA
25/11/2006 923563219V1YC
25/11/2006 92556528CT9L
25/11/2006 951591148Q7DV
25/11/2006 95859814MD/DJ9RR
25/11/2006 100860828TZ5A
25/11/2006 101361328ZS6C
25/11/2006 101661628VK9AA
25/11/2006 101861828EA8EW
25/11/2006 102062028RT6A
25/11/2006 102762728J43J
25/11/2006 1041641285A7A
25/11/2006 104864828S52W
25/11/2006 1104664215H3EE
25/11/2006 111367321ZP0R
25/11/2006 113069021A45XR
25/11/2006 113369321CT6A
25/11/2006 113769721PZ5ZY
25/11/2006 1139699218P5A
25/11/2006 1143703219Y4AA
25/11/2006 120172121CT9L
25/11/2006 120672621J79EP
25/11/2006 121073021TZ5A
25/11/2006 121273221CE4CT
25/11/2006 121573521ZY7C
25/11/2006 125677614V47NT
25/11/2006 130078014CN2WW
25/11/2006 131979914A45XR
25/11/2006 133281214YE1ZAT
25/11/2006 133581514LY2CX
25/11/2006 1351831143A2MW
25/11/2006 141385328PS2T
25/11/2006 141785728LU1HF
25/11/2006 143187128TU2CI
25/11/2006 143687614OY1CT
25/11/2006 1510910286W1RW
25/11/2006 1512912288P5A
25/11/2006 151491428CE4CT
25/11/2006 151891828EA8EW
25/11/2006 151991928CX7BY
25/11/2006 152092028PZ5ZY
25/11/2006 152592528HC8N
25/11/2006 153993914T94WF
25/11/2006 154494414CS7A
25/11/2006 1552952145Z1A
25/11/2006 155995914W3LPL
25/11/2006 1703102321PJ4A
25/11/2006 1722104221XE1NTT/2
25/11/2006 1729104921HI3A
25/11/2006 1730105021HC8N
25/11/2006 1733105321VP2VVV
25/11/2006 1857113714P40W
25/11/2006 1859113914EA8EW
25/11/2006 1904114414KH6ZM
25/11/2006 1951119121V47NT
25/11/2006 1956119621TI3TLS
25/11/2006 203212323.54O3B
25/11/2006 203612363.5BA4RF
25/11/2006 2118127814VP2VVV
25/11/2006 2134129414HC8N
25/11/2006 214313033.5IH9P
25/11/2006 222413447GD8T
25/11/2006 22431363145A7A
25/11/2006 22441364149Y4AA
25/11/2006 232114013.5A45XR
25/11/2006 2328140814PZ5ZY
26/11/2006 155155514CX7BY
26/11/2006 1571557149N7JO
26/11/2006 22315831.8YW4D
26/11/2006 34016601.86W1RW
26/11/2006 41316937VP5W
26/11/2006 415169579Y4AA
26/11/2006 446172614ZL6QH
26/11/2006 44817287HC8N
26/11/2006 654185414IT9ORA
26/11/2006 73418941.8MD6V
26/11/2006 930201021EX2A
26/11/2006 9332013216W1RW
26/11/2006 9362016219M2TO
26/11/2006 1001204128VK9AA
26/11/2006 1120212021LX7I
26/11/2006 11352135215A7A
26/11/2006 1442232221P40T
26/11/2006 1657245721J79EP
26/11/2006 1701246121VP5W
26/11/2006 184125617ZS3NN

Appendix B –SOAB and SOAB A logs with 50 or more 2REs and MS log with more than 200 2REs listed in descending order by section (sec) and number of two radio events

Log Sec Operator Assisted Power QSOs
PJ4A DX MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 8734
C4M DX SINGLE-OP ASSISTED HIGH 7023
PJ2T DX MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 6734
ZY7C DX MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 5753
KP3Z DX MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 6305
LR2F DX MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 4250
AH2R DX MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 3976
JA7YAA DX MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 2519
CT3NT DX SINGLE-OP HIGH 6754
ZS4TX DX SINGLE-OP HIGH 4860
V47NT DX SINGLE-OP HIGH 7440
CU2A DX SINGLE-OP HIGH 6376
UW8M EU SINGLE-OP ASSISTED HIGH 4004
OM8A EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 6127
OM7M EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 5422
OK5W EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 4701
OL7R EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 4717
IR4M EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 5087
TM2Y EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 4739
OL3A EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 4312
G6PZ EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 5023
G5W EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 5370
EA4KR EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 5361
HG1S EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 5216
YT0A EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 4426
OE4A EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 5754
9A1P EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 5574
DF3CB EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 3886
OH1F EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 3687
RL3A EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 4498
LX7I EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 5223
LN8W EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 4304
OH5Z EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 3453
OH4A EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 3920
RK2FWA EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 5302
OL3Z EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 3645
TM4Q EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 4288
SQ6Z EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 3136
ES5RR EU SINGLE-OP HIGH 4400
SO9Q EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 3164
DP9A EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 3382
PI4D EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 3120
DJ1YFK EU SINGLE-OP HIGH 3158
RT6A EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 4338
DL1EFD EU SINGLE-OP LOW 1782
RO4M EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 2625
RZ9OZO EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 3724
OL1C EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 3293
LN3Z EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 3847
OT6L EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 3470
CT6A EU SINGLE-OP ASSISTED LOW 4481
EA3NM EU SINGLE-OP ASSISTED HIGH 1186
DR4A EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 3028
UA9CLB EU SINGLE-OP HIGH 4006
EG3A EU SINGLE-OP HIGH 3228
SN2K EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 2477
RZ4CWW EU MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 2196
UA4FER EU SINGLE-OP LOW 2055
RV6LFE EU SINGLE-OP LOW 1614
OQ5M EU SINGLE-OP ASSISTED HIGH 2939
LY6M EU SINGLE-OP LOW 1091
DL3YM EU SINGLE-OP HIGH 3506
OH8X EU SINGLE-OP HIGH 3241
SE5E EU SINGLE-OP HIGH 1190
YL7X EU SINGLE-OP ASSISTED HIGH 1725
ES2DJ EU SINGLE-OP HIGH 1637
VO1AAM NA SINGLE-OP HIGH 4607
K5ZD NA SINGLE-OP HIGH 4193
W3BGN NA MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 2829
KI1G NA SINGLE-OP ASSISTED HIGH 3371
K4ZW NA SINGLE-OP HIGH 3686
K8CC NA MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 2719
K8AZ NA MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 3144
VY2TT NA SINGLE-OP HIGH 4652
VC3E NA SINGLE-OP HIGH 3730
N0NI NA MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 2277
K0RF NA MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 2480
WX0B NA SINGLE-OP HIGH 2100
W3UA NA MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 3077
K1IR NA MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 2949
K5TR NA SINGLE-OP HIGH 2426
K2QMF NA MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 2624
W8AV NA MULTI-OP ASSISTED HIGH 1857
W9RE NA SINGLE-OP HIGH 2867
NN1N NA SINGLE-OP HIGH 2858
VE3EY NA SINGLE-OP HIGH 3280
K0SR NA SINGLE-OP HIGH 1363
N2YO NA SINGLE-OP HIGH 2751
K3WW NA SINGLE-OP ASSISTED HIGH 3148
K3CR NA SINGLE-OP HIGH 3195
N2IC NA SINGLE-OP HIGH 2444
W1KM NA SINGLE-OP HIGH 3429
W2UP NA SINGLE-OP ASSISTED HIGH 1312
K5YA NA SINGLE-OP HIGH 2314
K1ZZ NA SINGLE-OP HIGH 2556
VE3KF NA SINGLE-OP LOW 1581

Appendix C - Overall profiles for each geographic area

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